Preview: UFC Vegas 104 ‘Vettori vs. Dolidze 2’

Lightweights

Alexander Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (21-8, 2-5 UFC)

ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Hernandez has apparently settled in as a solid but unspectacular fighter, and while that’s a bit of a disappointment given the hot start to his UFC career, it could also be a lot worse. Hernandez had a breakout 2018, knocking out Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut and dominating Olivier Aubin-Mercier to end the year as one of the promotion’s top young prospects. However, Hernandez’s first fight of 2019 saw Donald Cerrone blow open every single hole in his aggressive approach, handing “The Great Ape” a loss that changed the trajectory of his career. After an extremely cautious overcorrection against Francisco Trinaldo, Hernandez became a clear glass cannon. He could quickly obliterate some of the lower-level fighters on the UFC roster but would crumble in the face of any sort of consistent adversity. It wasn’t until 2023 or so that Hernandez seemingly struck a balance, finding enough patience to fight three consistent rounds without burning himself out. While that’s a positive step, the results themselves are a bit disappointing. Bill Algeo and Damon Jackson were able to outwork Hernandez enough over 15 minutes to find victories, and while he got back in the win column against Austin Hubbard, it was a purely workmanlike affair that didn’t do much to renew any sort of hopes that he could make a run towards title contention. For now, Holobaugh should at least be able to force a fun scrap out of Hernandez, since that’s almost always what he does.

This marks Holobaugh’s third run with the UFC, which makes sense since he’s the type of fighter built to succeed at the regional level while struggling against better competition. Holobaugh is all gas and no brakes while being historically durable, but he’s not much of an athlete, which has often run him into getting neutralized by UFC-level competition. Hernandez has certainly lost to this type of opponent before—even after his most recent round of adjustments—but the clear athleticism gap should be enough for him to find his moments to slow this down and work his way to a win as needed. The pick is Hernandez via decision.

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Vettori vs. Dolidze
Zaleski dos Santos vs. Njokuani
Vallejos vs. Choi
Hernandez vs. Holobaugh
Blackshear vs. Gibson
You vs. Cunningham
The Prelims