Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio’

Lightweights

Steven Ray (21-6) vs. Paul Felder (13-3)

THE MATCHUP: We could be in for an interesting chess match when these experienced strikers meet in the cage. With 15 UFC fights between them, fans have seen Ray and Felder adapt and grow within the Octagon. Ray was once an aggressive counterpuncher who seemed to lose whenever an opponent managed to take him down. Felder also liked to pressure and counter, but he did not seem to know where his stylistic strengths were. He could not pressure well enough to track down the likes of Ross Pearson and Francisco Trinaldo, nor could he counter well enough to neutralize the offense of Edson Barboza. Both men have some impressive highlights, but I expect this fight to be close, a sort of test to determine who will stagnate and who will move forward.

Both men showed some improvements in their most recent fights. Ray was taken down far too easily by Joe Lauzon and he made some questionable choices on the ground, repeatedly giving up dominant positions to the veteran submission artist. In the face of adversity, however, Ray kept a cool head. Per his corner’s instructions, he adjusted his striking tactics to deny Lauzon any further takedowns. He worked the body to slow sown Lauzon as the fight wore on and met his advances with hard strikes in the clinch. His resilience also helped him in the third round of a fast-paced fight, as both men had slowed considerably. Ray kept his distance and poured on punches in Round 3 despite the fact that his arms seemed to have tripled in weight.

Felder showed some improvements of his own in a first-round knockout of Alessandro Ricci. Working for the first time under Duke Roufus, Felder was markedly more aggressive. In the past, he has fallen into the trap of following his opponents around and waiting for openings without doing anything to set them up. Against Ricci, Felder worked behind his jab, flashing his left in Ricci’s face and then picking his shots with the right hand; and with more consistent output, Felder’s dangerous counterstriking was allowed to flourish. He forced Ricci to throw back, measured his reactions and finished him with a beautiful up-elbow as he lunged into the pocket.

Both men have been outgrappled in the past, and I expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet. Do not be surprised, however, if either Ray or Felder looks for an occasional takedown to keep the opponent guessing. Felder should win these exchanges, as he is larger and stronger than Ray. He is also a more traditional submission grappler, preferring to work from half guard and pursue back takes when the opportunity arises. As noted above, Ray is more of a risk-taker on the ground. It would be a real surprise if the leg locks he foolishly attempted against Lauzon worked any better against Felder.

THE ODDS: Ray (-140), Felder (+120)

THE PICK: Felder was more aggressive in his fight against Ricci, and that is a good sign. Ricci is not much of a mover, however, and Felder had no trouble finding the distance and angles he wanted. Ray is a different story. Though it was not the exciting performance fans have come to expect from him, Ray showed great discipline in his bout with Ross Pearson, forcing the boxer to chase him around the ring while peppering him with a diverse array of kicks in the process. Felder has been vulnerable to kicks in the past, but he will counter a kick with a takedown if necessary. If he can neutralize Ray’s kicking game, then his powerful counterstriking could become a major factor. Both men are extremely durable, so expect a lot of dicey exchanges. It really could go either way, but the pick is Felder by unanimous decision.

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