Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio’

Middleweights

Jack Marshman (21-6) vs. Ryan Janes (10-2)

THE MATCHUP: Marshman is an exciting striker. Janes is a tough man who gets hit and keeps on going. This one should be good.

Wales’ Marshman is a boxer first and foremost. He works behind a solid jab and likes to push a pace, but he is most dangerous on the counter. Marshman’s jab works quite well when he parries the jab of his opponent and immediately responds with his own. Marshman will follow with strikes to any available target, frequently throwing a right straight to the body before following with a swift left hook to the head. For a counterpuncher, Marshman is quite shaky on defense. He tends to back up in straight lines and lean away from incoming strikes; both are dangerous tactics. Unless he is knocked out, however, Marshman will not stop marching forward and landing shots; and when he is coming forward, he will use angles to complement his combinations.

This skill set poses a problem for Janes. At 6-foot-3 with 76 inches of reach, Janes knows how to use his length, working behind a long jab. His height on the other hand is often a liability. Janes is remarkably hittable, as he leans into his punches without any semblance of head movement. Like Marshman, Janes is too mentally tough to be shaken by the strikes he absorbs, and unlike Marshman, he has never been knocked out. His level of opposition does not compare to Marshman’s, however, with the exception of veteran Gerald Meerschaert, who submitted Janes in the first round of his last fight.

Still, submission grappling will be Janes’ best path to victory over Marshman. Seven of Janes’ 10 wins have come by submission, six of them rear-naked chokes. Marshman knows how to wall walk, but he was easily controlled on the ground when Magnus Cedenblad took him down in open space. If Janes can get him down in the middle of the cage, his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu will come in handy. However, Janes is not the most consistent wrestler. Most of his takedowns come from the clinch against the fence, which may give Marshman the opportunity he needs to scramble back to his feet.

THE ODDS: Marshman (-485), Janes (+385)

THE PICK: Janes is durable and has excellent stamina. If he can push the pace and force Marshman into clinch after clinch, he may be able to drag the Welshman to the ground and simply outwork him. Because Marshman’s defensive footwork is lacking, it is possible that Janes will run him into the fence over and over. In the process, however, he will absorb blistering counterpunches, and the takedowns may be neutralized by Marshman’s wall walking. Unless Janes can take down his opponent in the center of the Octagon or take his back as he turns to stand up against the fence, Marshman should be able to avoid the worst of his grappling offense. That means Janes’ willingness to walk through punches will take its toll. The pick is Marshman by second-round TKO.

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