Preview: UFC 221 ‘Romero vs. Rockhold’

Light Heavyweight

Tyson Pedro (6-1) vs. Saparbek Safarov (8-1)

ODDS: Pedro (-275), Safarov (+235).

ANALYSIS: This is taking a flier on a physically talented prospect. As Safarov showed against Gian Villante in December, the Russian is far from a finished product. In fact, all Villante needed to do to dismantle him was go with low kicks and jabs.

Pedro has these skills, albeit not in the same shape and form as Villante. In this pairing, it is more likely that the Aussie will swarm inside, try to get trip takedowns and land in the clinch, even if the out-fighting game favors him tremendously. This is a matter of style, and we cannot help this. The question is whether or not it is actually effective.

Pedro’s natural switching between clinch takedown attempts and haymakers may actually help Safarov plod forward, but the Russian’s game is so straightforward that he essentially gives up the ghost every time. There is no doubt that Pedro would prefer this fight on the mat, with him pounding on top, but how does he manufacture that scenario? This is a more complicated question at the highest levels of MMA, but at this particular echelon, Safarov is bound to just spam takedowns he cannot finish while being incrementally beaten up on the way to a decision loss mid- to late-round stoppage.

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