Preview: UFC 221 ‘Romero vs. Rockhold’

Lightweight

Damien Brown (17-11) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (15-8-3)

ODDS: Kim (-155), Brown (+135).

ANALYSIS: The actual money line here is intriguing, as it suggests we are going to get a real, reckless brawl where one fighter goes out on his shield. We do not exactly need a divining rod to decide whether or not the promoter thought either man eating the canvas would be a necessary cog from the booking arm. This is a question of forward pressure versus countering ability. Both men land just under four significant strikes per minute while eating about the same, which lends credence to the he-who-lands-first ethos. Here is the rub: Kim is a natural pressure fighter who excels at walking forward, while Brown enjoys his best success countering off of his back foot. Brown will invite Kim to fight at an advantageous range, while consistently forcing the kind of striking fight that allows him to land right-hand counters off of his back foot. However, Kim has the swarming style to woo the judges, plus forward pressure on his side. If he can make it to the final bell, he may seduce the scorers just enough in a wild brawl to take two of the three cards. Kim wins a close split decision.

Middleweight

Israel Adesanya (11-1) vs. Rob Wilkinson (11-1)

ODDS: Adesanya (-300), Wilkinson (+250)

ANALYSIS: Outside of your James Toney types who are preordained to be embarrassed for largely promotional reasons, the UFC -- regardless of ownership era -- tends to take it easy on striking converts. That is good news for Adesanya, a Glory Kickboxing convert who, in addition to some serious elite kickboxing experience, already has an 11-0 pro MMA record over the last six years. Australia’s Wilkinson is a tough, durable fighter with the well-rounded skills necessary to knock out illegitimate opponents and submit others who cannot hang on the ground. However, in his UFC debut in past September, it became abundantly clear that he is truly hittable. I cannot go full Joe Rogan and scream that Adesanya is a “world-class kickboxer,” but there is no real question about who is a craftier striker in a battle of strikers. Yes, they both possess an 80-inch reach, but the Nigeria native can switch stance, throw with all eight points and do it more powerfully, more convincingly and more decisively. Adesanya’s kickboxing career suggests that it is not just a wrestler who can best him but a high-level striker with a jab and low-kick discipline who can control distance, take away his lunging attacks from outside the pocket and stymie him. These opponents do in fact exist at 185 pounds within the UFC. Is Wilkinson one of them? No. Adesanya wins by knockout in the first 10 minutes, relying on his heavy hooking and kicking offense to eventually expose Wilkinson’s chin and put him down.

Featherweight

Jeremy Kennedy (11-0) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (16-1)

ODDS: Volkanovski (-175), Kennedy (+155).

ANALYSIS: Kennedy’s unbeaten record is not an indictment of any kind, as he has not faced weak opposition. However, in Volkanovski, he must confront a vastly different style pairing than he has experienced so far in the Octagon and not necessarily one that has paid him dividends. Kennedy’s jack-of-all-trades style with above-average wrestling has bought him sound and clear decision wins over Alessandro Ricci, Rony Mariano Bezerra and Kyle Bochniak. However, Australia’s Volkanovski remains one of the most unsung featherweight prospects in the world and could be a fighter that eventually establishes himself as a perennial top-10 to top-15 force. Kennedy’s style is a fairly straight MMA tactic: Kickbox with your opponent until it does not work, then grab a clinch takedown and get busy on top. This is actually a horrible modus operandi against Volkanovski, who thrives in close-range striking and is at his best when he can force his adversary’s to make offensive mistakes. “Alexander the Great” is not necessarily an awesome finisher, but he is a crafty boxer from range, working his jab and overhand right to earn his way to the clinch. From there, the 29-year-old really gets off his offense. These are the two ranges from which the unbeaten Kennedy has struggled most, and this seems like precisely the kind of bout where his omnipresent wrestling advantage would run out. Volkanovski is not a power hitter but a worker by attrition; however, he is not a slow starter, either. If “JBC” hopes to lob simple strikes, move into the clinch and control, he has another thing coming. The Aussie enjoys an advantage from medium and close range, where his opponent normally excels; and Volkanovski is arguably better where Kennedy normally buys his takedowns. Whether it turns into a beatdown rather than a workmanlike decision is another matter, but look for Volkankovski to move to 17-1 after 15 minutes in the cage with the previously unbeaten Kennedy.

Flyweight

Jussier da Silva (20-5) vs. Ben Nguyen (16-6)

ODDS: Da Silva (-120), Nguyen (+100).

ANALYSIS: This must sound like a broken record, not just from me but from anyone charged with the task of analyzing mixed martial artists: Da Silva’s ability to take, control and threaten from back mount is nearly unparalleled across this entire sport, regardless of weight class. We will build our analysis from there. Yes, the Brazilian is a fundamentally sound, buttoned-up kickboxer who can handle himself when he is not dealing with the likes of a John Dodson on the feet. Nguyen is a definitively more varied and active striker; not only does the adopted Aussie land nearly four times as many significant strikes per minute as his adversary, but he is an able switch hitter who can punch and kick. It is not as though Nguyen is without advantages here. The problem is that his entire style relies on flying by the seat of his pants, taking an opponent’s opening and looking to exploit it, be it on the feet or the floor. Against “Formiga,” if that opening is not doing standing damage, you may be wasting your time. Nguyen, as best evidenced by his July 2016 loss to Louis Smolka, is simply prone to wild scrambling, which does not bode well against a fighter whose defining attribute is turning into a human Jansport. Nguyen will attack early and perhaps even land hard, but once he attempts to segue into the grappling game, he will find himself thwarted if not choked by the superior specialist. Brazil’s “Ant Man” fights well above his size here and gets his hand raised via positionally dominant decision.

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