Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Holm vs. Correia’

Welterweights

Dong Hyun Kim (22-3-1) vs. Colby Covington (11-1)

THE MATCHUP: Kim is a top-10 welterweight, but at this point, it seems like his position is rent-controlled. Though Kim has still been accruing wins at a steady clip, they have come over relatively middling competition. In fact, Kim has never beaten a top-10 opponent in his nine years with the UFC. In this matchup, Covington is the man to watch. Will this wrestle-boxing prospect storm Kim’s gates or will a loss relegate him to the rest of the pack that the South Korean judoka has already beaten?

It is difficult to know what to expect from Kim in any given fight. His grappling top game is world class, and his takedown defense stands at an impressive 80 percent. That, along with the seven takedowns he attempts per 15-minute fight, grants Kim considerable control over the pace and whereabouts of a bout. At times, however, he has thrown the prospect of control right out the window. Kim can be a truly wild striker, a brawler who relies on his chin and seeks to overwhelm with power, volume and unabated aggression. Though this approach has seen Kim lose emphatically, it could have an effect on his inexperienced opponent, especially if Covington is a little uncomfortable fighting another southpaw -- something he has not done at this level.

For now, Covington is still developing the comfort in striking that Kim wholeheartedly -- some might say suicidally -- embraced a few years ago. The right ideas are there: Covington will throw away an overhand before diving on the legs and can land some punishing shots using the threat of that takedown, but small moments of hesitation and awkwardness reveal that his total MMA game is still a work in progress. Like a new installment in the “Call of Duty” franchise, however, Covington’s game is already effective; he is just waiting on the DLC to fill out the gaps. If the combinations and head movement Covington showed against the underrated Bryan Barberena are any indication, then the download is already in progress.

Covington’s A-game remains wrestling. He pushes a breakneck pace as a grappler, attempting 12.57 shots for every 15 minutes of fight time, and he completes nearly seven of those attempts. In the aforementioned Barberena fight, Covington took down “Bam Bam” 12 times and threw 141 significant strikes in the meantime. The conditioning this type of pace necessitates may be Covington’s biggest advantage over Kim, who has been known to gas in the past.

THE ODDS: Covington (-325), Kim (+265)

THE PICK: This is a tough test for Covington and one he has not faced before. Kim’s grappling and takedown defense mean Covington will have his work cut out for him as a wrestler and may have to make extensive use of his developing striking chops. Kim is powerful and unpredictable on the feet, but Covington’s pace should allow him to land more, ultimately wearing down Kim and making him much easier to outwrestle. The first round could be a difficult one, but the pick is Covington by unanimous decision.

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