UFC 171 ‘Hendricks vs. Lawler’ Preview

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Welterweights

Carlos Condit (29-7, 6-3 UFC) vs. Tyron Woodley (12-2, 2-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Condit was originally set to face Matt Brown in a violence lover’s delight at UFC on Fox 9 in December, but Brown was forced to withdraw from the fight after suffering two herniated discs in his back. Now, “The Natural Born Killer” gets a very different matchup in Woodley, a two-time NCAA All-American wrestler at the University of Missouri.

While Woodley has received praise for his vicious knockouts of Jay Hieron and Josh Koscheck in the UFC, he has not always had the reputation of a devastating striker. As the competition grew steeper during his Strikeforce tenure, Woodley was often all too content to take down his opponents and ride out victories from top position. Considering that neither Koscheck nor Hieron is a striker of Condit’s caliber, it would not be a surprise to see Woodley return to his wrestling roots here.

For all his improvements, Condit is still vulnerable to the takedown. He was grounded a combined 19 times in losses to Georges St. Pierre and Johny Hendricks, and even Martin Kampmann had success getting the New Mexican to the mat early before Condit wore him down with overwhelming pressure and pace. While Condit is more than capable of landing strikes and threatening with submissions from his back, it remains to be seen if the judges will reward such efforts. Even if Woodley does little from top position, if he is able to score multiple takedowns per round, that might be enough to pull the upset.

Although Woodley has numbing power in his right hand, he lacks the versatility of his opponent. Condit has established himself as a superb cage general, utilizing footwork and angles while landing punches, kicks, knees and elbows in combination. The Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts standout changes levels with his strikes effectively and knows when to circle out of danger. He is also effective landing offense in the clinch, which could prove crucial as Woodley attempts to close the distance.

Woodley has been known to fade late in fights, but he has a real shot at coming out the gate strong and holding off Condit in a 15-minute affair. It is unlikely that he could do the same in a five-round fight, as Condit seems to get better the longer the fight goes.

The Pick: It will all come down to Condit’s ability to either keep Woodley at a safe distance or return to his feet when taken down. In the end, Woodley will get a few takedowns, but count on Condit’s conditioning, cage savvy and overall skill to carry him to a TKO or decision triumph.

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