Preview: UFC Fight Night 204 ‘Volkov vs. Aspinall’

Featherweights

#7 FW | Arnold Allen (17-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. #8 LW | Dan Hooker (21-11, 11-7 UFC)

ODDS: Allen (-110), Hooker (-110)

Allen’s ascent on the featherweight ladder has been frustratingly slow at times, but he is ready to cash in for what would be the biggest win of his career. Allen was just 21 years old when he made his UFC debut and scored an impressive upset over veteran Alan Omer, but the UFC surprisingly did not try to capitalize on the momentum. Instead, Allen fought infrequently on European cards and mostly faced fellow prospects or middling veterans. In retrospect, the matchmaking was just about perfect, as Allen obviously improved from fight to fight and was tested just enough to narrowly stay ahead of his opposition, whether it was outlasting Makwan Amirkhani for a decision win in 2017 or his come-from-behind submission victory over Mads Burnell in 2018. After a March 2019 win over Jordan Rinaldi—which was again quite narrow—the UFC then seemed ready to finally pull the trigger on Allen with some more high-profile matchmaking. Some of the more interesting options fell through, but between 2019 and 2020, “Almighty” was able to score two one-sided wins over Gilbert Melendez and Nik Lentz, though there were still questions about whether Allen was actually turning a corner or beating up on past-their-prime veterans. That made his fight against Sodiq Yusuff in April a crucial test against another prospect in his prime. It was a test that Allen passed with flying colors. The powerful wrestling that always served as the core of Allen’s game was on display, and he put together an impressively controlled and effective performance on the feet against a dangerous striker. Allen just turned 28, so he should be a relevant featherweight for the next few years—a point he can drive home against Hooker, who also has something to prove.

New Zealand’s Hooker initially came to the UFC as a featherweight, but it was not until a move up to lightweight in 2017 that “The Hangman” was able to string together some consistent success. At 155 pounds, Hooker was helped by facing comparatively slower opponents, and he found some focus to what has rounded into an adaptable approach. After pressuring Jim Miller and Gilbert Burns in impressive knockout wins, he has shown the ability to hang back and pick off his opponents in his fights since, particularly in a 2019 outpacing of Al Iaquinta that served as a breakout win. Hooker did wind up hitting a clear ceiling against the lightweight elite, though he did drag Dustin Poirier into a five-round scrap that was among the best fights of 2020. However, losses to Michael Chandler and Islam Makhachev were worryingly one-sided, as each quickly got Hooker to retreat on route to an early finish. It is understandable that Hooker would want to mix things up after those performances, but this marks his cut back down to 145 pounds, which is quite interesting. He performed much better up at lightweight, but he is also a much better fighter now than he was the last time he fought as a featherweight. This is also about the perfect litmus test for Hooker in his new weight class since Allen is both a relevant talent in his prime and a bit of an advantageous style matchup, given that he is among the slower and more patient featherweight contenders. Hooker starts slow and needs to gain momentum, but Allen has never been one to quickly overwhelm his opponents, which means this should turn into an excellent fight in the back half once both men have warmed up. It is essentially a coinflip. Allen’s advantage figures to be his strong wrestling, but Hooker has a giant frame for a featherweight and enough grappling skills to make that a dangerous proposition. On the other side of the coin, Hooker should be a higher-volume striker able to dictate things from range, but it is unclear how the larger weight cut will affect the Kiwi’s ability to keep up a pace. The bet is that Hooker can make the wrestling and grappling exchanges enough of a wash to stay ahead on volume and survive any late trouble, but this is the clear highlight of the card as a fight that is crucial for both men and should answer a lot of important questions. The pick is Hooker via decision.

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