Preview: UFC 309 ‘Jones vs. Miocic’

Lightweights

#2 LW | Charles Oliveira (34-10, 22-10 UFC) vs. #7 LW | Michael Chandler (23-8, 2-3 UFC)

ODDS: Oliveira (-258), Chandler (+210)

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
It’s not the matchup for which Chandler has been itching for the better part of the last two years, but it’s good to see the former Bellator MMA champion back in action. The worry was that Chandler had left his best years behind him in Bellator when he signed with the UFC ahead of his 2021 debut, but while he has lost more than he has won at the elite level inside the Octagon, his UFC campaign has been a clear success. Chandler’s first year under the UFC banner saw him pack a whole lot of living into three fights, with a quick knockout of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut serving as the cleanest fight of the bunch. That set Chandler up for a matchup against Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, where the two essentially had a five-round war over the course of five minutes and change. There were tons of momentum shifts as each took turns dominating the other on both the feet and the mat until Oliveira scored the second-round knockout. Chandler then ended the year with another loss in a must-see affair, this time dropping a decision to Justin Gaethje in just about the best three-round fight you could ever see from a pure action standpoint. That Gaethje performance is probably the best summation of where Chandler is in his late 30s. He has the horsepower to go toe-to-toe with anyone as long as he puts his proverbial pedal to the metal, but that focus on power leads to Chandler having to slow down at points in order to manage his gas tank, which in turn leaves him prone to having massive momentum swings in his fights. His 2022 run saw Chandler overcome a slow start to brutally knock out Tony Ferguson before losing another excellent war to Dustin Poirier. Despite the loss, Chandler still seemed set up for a big 2023, coaching “The Ultimate Fighter” against Conor McGregor with an eye towards the two matching up down the line. We are now firmly down the line and the fight has yet to happen, with the matchup now veering closer to running-joke status thanks to McGregor's constant issues—obvious or not—getting back into the cage and Chandler's insistence and holding out and staying optimistic. The dream is now apparently deferred with Chandler signing on for a five-round co-main event rematch against Oliveira, which should be entertaining enough to keep his stock high no matter the result.

Oliveira defeating Chandler to become lightweight champion was the culmination of a long and winding journey for the Brazilian, who spent the better part of a decade as a cautionary tale when it came to the UFC’s matchmaking. “Do Bronx” burst onto the scene as an electric submission artist in 2010, but seemed to have his confidence absolutely obliterated thanks to the UFC matching him too aggressively. It felt like each dynamic win over a lower-level opponent would lead to Oliveira getting smashed by a steadier veteran, and within a few years he seemed to settle in as an inconsistent frontrunner who could crumble in the face of strong resistance. After ending 2017 on a loss to Paul Felder, a funny thing happened. Oliveira just kept winning, and around the time of a 2019 victory over David Teymur, he seemed to finally come out the other end of his confidence issues. Oliviera’s wins—and there were a lot of them, as the Teymur victory was the fourth of an 11-fight winning streak—were rarely clean, but now freed of his mental hangups, he seemed to thrive in a war of attrition, marching forward and getting hit a ton but also banking on the threat of his ground game to give him enough time to regroup and restart the process until his opponent eventually folded first. Oliveira eventually racked up wins over Chandler, Poirier and Gaethje to establish himself at the top of that wave of lightweights in a post-Khabib Nurmagomedov world, but things eventually came to a crashing halt against Islam Makhachev, whose own wrestling skill essentially made him unafraid of Oliveira’s grappling and allowed him to dominate their fight. It’s hard to see Oliveira getting all the way back to upending Makhachev given the style matchup, but he has spent the ensuing two years confirming that he’s still in the running to be the second-best lightweight in the world. A bounce-back win over Beneil Dariush was classic Oliveira, and he nearly took a decision from current top contender Arman Tsarukyan, accomplishing plenty from bottom position against another opponent unafraid to fight with him on the mat. Oliveira hasn’t lost a step, so this rematch against Chandler looks similar to their first fight three and a half years ago, which is good from an entertainment standpoint. Chandler has the horsepower to knock out Oliveira and blow open the Brazilian's game for as long as he is operating at maximum strength. As long as Oliveira bends but doesn’t break, there’s the constant threat that he can stage a comeback and send Chandler careening off the rails. It’s a coinflip, but there’s also little reason to pick against things playing out like they did the first time. The pick is Oliveira via second-round submission.

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Jones vs. Miocic
Oliveira vs. Chandler
Nickal vs. Craig
Silva vs. Araujo
Ruffy vs. Llontop
Prelims: McGhee vs. Martinez