Preview: UFC 277 ‘Pena vs. Nunes 2’

Interim UFC Flyweight Championship

#1 FLW | Brandon Moreno (19-6-2, 7-3-2 UFC) vs. #2 FLW | Kai Kara France (24-9, 7-2 UFC)

ODDS: Moreno (-210), Kara-France (+180)

The top of the flyweight division has gotten surprisingly messy, but from a fight standpoint, this should all work out nicely. While an interim belt probably is not necessary, it is hard to complain about what should be an excellent five-round fight to help sort things out. Moreno’s 2019 win over France was a fun banger of a bout that helped signal the resurgence of the division, given that most of the prior year and change had been marked by the UFC’s attempts to tear the division down. Even Moreno himself was cut from his UFC contract the year before, only getting the return call once the UFC decided to run a card in his native Mexico. After that return fight—a draw against fellow future contender Askar Askarov—the win over France served as a coming-out party of sorts for “The Assassin Baby.” Moreno had previously made a run up the flyweight ranks, even getting a headlining spot in Mexico City opposite Sergio Pettis. However, that success felt somewhat tenuous, with Moreno scoring his biggest wins with huge moments of offense that swung the fight suddenly towards a finish. Pettis had the consistent approach to blow open all of the holes in Moreno’s game between those bursts of offense, and Alexandre Pantoja did much the same to send him temporarily out of the promotion. In the France fight, Moreno overcame a slow start to outpace the City Kickboxing standout in the back half of the fight, finally showing a combination-heavy approach that both leaned on the Mexican’s durability and gave him a path to winning rounds without being dependent on a finish. Within a year, Moreno had established himself as the top contender to Deiveson Figueiredo. Their first fight, another draw, set up a trilogy that has spanned three calendar years and saw Moreno become the UFC’s long-awaited first Mexican-born champion. With Figueiredo rebounding to win the third bout in January, the stage seemed set for a fourth encounter between the two around this time. However, with Figueiredo apparently hurt, the UFC went the interim title route, with France getting the call as Moreno’s opponent.

France’s rise to this point has been a slow burn, so it has been nice to see everything come together for the Kiwi to a degree that was not necessarily guaranteed. “Don’t Blink” was not signed off the all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016, which was a minor surprise if only because France had displayed a rare level of knockout power for the division in his lone win on the show. That led to a bit of a clamor for France’s signing whenever the UFC swung down to Australia or New Zealand, and he finally got the call in 2018. It appeared France’s UFC tenure might be tenuous, however. While he was consistently good for some back-and-forth bangers, he struggled to separate himself in the athlete-heavy waters at flyweight in some close wins—not to mention that his entire division’s existence was consistently in doubt. Still, France chugged along as the division steadied itself, and after losses to Moreno and Brandon Royval, it seemed like the die was cast. Again, France was guaranteed entertainment but struggled against faster opponents who were willing to pour on pressure and mix things up. However, France has done nothing but score breakthrough wins since. For one thing, 2021 finally saw the return of his knockout power with some brutal finishes of Rogerio Bontorin and Cody Garbrandt. Then came France’s March win over Askarov, which is where everything seemed to finally click. France stayed on point in the face of Askarov’s relentless wrestling-heavy attack, surviving rough moments, getting the fight back to the feet and eventually standing out as the much more confident and determined fighter as he shut down all the best parts of the Russian’s game. Each man’s most recent fight makes the idea of this rematch about as fascinating as it has ever been. France’s improvements have been obvious and great to see, but while Askarov is in the mold of opponents that have given the Kiwi some difficulties previously, his attack does border on one-dimensional at times; so while progress has been made, Moreno may still be a poisonous matchup in terms of providing that same level of aggression with a much more varied approach. Additionally, France seemed to discourage Askarov by the end of the fight, and Moreno has both the durability and confidence to never be taken off track. In its own way, that might be a curse of Moreno, as it was in the third Figueiredo fight. After two bouts, Moreno understandably learned the lesson that Figueiredo was unable to stun or knock him out, but he approached the trilogy fight by leaning even more on aggression and durability at the expense of craft. It still made for an exciting encounter, but if Moreno comes in relying on those physical gifts once again, there is a chance it is enough of a one-dimensional approach to open the door for France to score the upset. Still, the Mexican has to be the clear pick on pace, durability and what he has proven to date, though there is some intrigue about the result—and the promise of some guaranteed violence in the fight itself. The pick is Moreno via decision.

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Pena vs. Nunes
Moreno vs. France
Pavlovich vs. Lewis
Pantoja vs. Perez
Ankalaev vs. Smith
The Prelims