Preview: UFC 204 ‘Bisping vs. Henderson 2’

Middleweights

Gegard Mousasi (39-6-2) vs. Vitor Belfort (25-12)

THE MATCHUP: Few middleweights can claim the level of experience possessed by these two men. Mousasi has made 47 trips to the ring or cage, not counting his eight kickboxing bouts and 13 amateur boxing matches. He has fought at a high level since April 2003, and he is still just 31 years old. Belfort is eight years Mousasi’s senior, but his first MMA bout took place way back in 1996. His Wikipedia page is a long list of blue names, including such men as David Abbott, Randy Couture, Wanderlei Silva, Heath Herring, Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Anderson Silva, Jon Jones, Michael Bisping, Luke Rockhold and many more. These guys have been around the block a few times.

Belfort has perhaps had the more impressive recent performances, but his best wins of the last five years seem intrinsically tied to his use of testosterone replacement therapy. Since the hormone treatment was banned in 2014, Belfort has lost two of three. Admittedly, those losses came to some of the best middleweights on the planet -- Chris Weidman and Ronaldo Souza -- but they were decidedly unimpressive performances from “The Phenom.” In both, Belfort looked much more like his old self, a blitzing fighter who loses confidence and energy after the first few exchanges. There was none of the careful patience that marked his impressive showings against Rockhold and Bisping.

Meanwhile, despite a few disappointing losses in his UFC career, Mousasi has been plugging away at his usual pace. “The Dreamcatcher” is a well-rounded fighter and becoming more well-rounded with time. His oddball kickboxing, built around an excellent jab, is still a powerful aspect of his game, but he has also dominated several opponents with wrestling and top control, adding a new facet to his always-dangerous submission grappling. Mousasi was TKO’d by Uriah Hall, but there is no reason to fear for his chin. The back kick Hall landed would have felled an elephant, and it took a flush flying knee and several ground strikes to force the stoppage, at which point Mousasi was still conscious.

Belfort’s own grappling is hit-or-miss. He came dangerously close to submitting Jones in 2012 but quickly revealed that his confidence in his grappling was misplaced, ultimately losing by submission himself. Both Weidman and Souza dominated him utterly on the floor, knocking him out with a salvo of punches from mount. Belfort has always been susceptible to takedowns, and he even pulled guard several times against Souza. No one but Belfort knows why.

THE ODDS: Mousasi (-325), Belfort (+265)

THE PICK: Belfort is undeniably the more dangerous of the two, but Mousasi has more tools at his disposal and none of the confidence issues that have plagued Belfort throughout his career. Mousasi can take a shot and keep coming, and he has enough striking savvy to keep Belfort from overwhelming him, as he has often sought to do. And given Belfort’s weakness to expert top players, Mousasi will be able to pursue the grappling game whenever he wants, though he may not get Belfort down as effortlessly as Weidman and Souza did. The pick is Mousasi by submission in the second round.

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