UFC 207 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Nunes vs. Rousey
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is pulling out the big guns to finish off a record-setting year.
In the headlining bout at UFC 207 on Friday, former women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey makes her return to the cage after more than a year away from the fight game. Rousey became one of the biggest stars in the sport between 2012 and 2015, rattling off six dominant title defenses and pushing the female side of MMA to new heights. All of that came to a halt in November 2015, her most recent appearance in the cage, when Rousey was knocked out in devastating fashion by Holly Holm. Many question marks surround her return, especially since she has insisted on minimal media appearances.
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There are a lot of angles from which to see this fight. Let us take a look at the Tale of the Tape:
In anthropometric terms, both women are evenly matched. The additional inch of height and reach that Nunes has represents a small edge, especially since her physicality plays into her technical game, but those differences are unlikely to be game-changers.
Determining who has the experience advantage is difficult, as well.
On one hand, the incumbent champion has fought professionally for
longer, has more total fights and has logged an additional 20
minutes in the UFC and Strikeforce than Rousey has; and that does
not include her stint in Invicta. On the other hand, Rousey has
fought on the biggest stages of the sport, including nine
championship fights in the UFC and Strikeforce. While Nunes has
fought on big cards before -- she was on the main card at UFC 196
and in the headliner at UFC 200 -- Rousey has been under an intense
spotlight for several years.
The most noteworthy difference is in their layoffs. Nunes has fought twice already this year, most recently in July. Rousey has not fought in over a year. Things like ring rust and nerves are hard to quantify, but they are real, and Rousey has more psychological inertia working against her. This is particularly true given the fact that Nunes trains at one of the most established camps in the sport, whereas Rousey continues to train at one of the most suspect camps in the sport.
This is neither the time nor the place to discuss factors that fall outside of the statistical realm, so let us take a look at the striking data:
Striking is no doubt the comfort zone of the defending champion. Nunes works at a fast pace and has the power and accuracy to be a threat to anyone in the division. She throws 81 percent of all her strikes at her opponents’ heads, while body shots and leg strikes account for the remaining eight percent and 11 percent of her output. Nunes’ preferred range is more balanced: 48 percent of her strikes come from distance, while 41 percent go to opponents on the ground. Only 11 percent of her total output comes in the clinch.
Though Rousey’s last performance does not paint her striking in a positive light, she has made legitimate improvements to her game that have translated into the Octagon. In terms of her preferred target, Rousey is fairly similar to Nunes: 82 percent of her output is aimed at the head, while 12 percent goes to the body and six percent to the legs. The range of Rousey’s striking is much different, though: 56 percent of her strikes come from distance, while 29 percent are in the clinch. The remaining 15 percent of Rousey’s strikes are to grounded opponents.
The stats do not bode well for Rousey. Nunes is a more powerful striker who works at a higher pace and eats fewer shots; and she is more accurate, to boot. Much of Rousey’s striking averages are buoyed by the number of strikes she has delivered from dominant position to opponents on the ground, which are predictably high-percentage. If we look purely at distance strikes -- where both throw the majority of their strikes -- Rousey lands 32 percent of her strikes compared to Nunes’ 51 percent.
All things considered, “The Lioness” will want to keep the fight upright as much as possible, while Rousey will want to close the distance as quickly as possible. The grappling numbers explain why:
The ground and grappling realms are unquestionably Rousey’s wheelhouse. She attempts one more takedown per round than Nunes and completes more than three times the amount per round. From there, Rousey is much more active in passing, where she can rain down punches from dominant position and maneuver for her patented armbar. Rousey has solicited a tapout almost twice as many times as Nunes has even attempted a submission.
Still yet, Nunes is no slouch on the ground. She is an accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioner with several black belt gold medals to her name, and she is also a judo brown belt. In MMA, she tends to opt for strikes on the ground as opposed to submissions, but she is fluid at using strikes to orchestrate submission attempts, as well. It is worth noting that while Nunes has never been submitted in major organizations, she did get submitted in 35 seconds in her professional debut -- with an armbar. Her takedown defense will likely be crucial if she is to go home with the belt still wrapped around her waist.
Final Word
Many great fighters have benefitted from an aura of invincibility that rattles opponents before they enter the cage. Rousey had that aura when she last entered the cage and no longer had it when she left the cage. This will be the first time she will have to bounce back from adversity in her UFC career, and there are legitimate question marks surrounding her return. The matchup against Nunes does her no favors. The Brazilian champion is tough, athletic and has battled back from tough losses several times throughout her career. This is an intriguing fight from a narrative and stylistic standpoint and could very well prove to be a landmark moment for women’s MMA.
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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