Preview: UFC Fight Night 138 ‘Oezdemir vs. Smith’

Welterweights

Nordine Taleb (14-5) vs. Sean Strickland (19-3): An interesting welterweight bout headlines the prelims, and avoiding a loss is surprisingly crucial for both fighters. Taleb, a Frenchman fighting out of Montreal, figured to just provide depth for the UFC’s Canadian cards when it signed him in 2014, but he has turned into a serviceable member of the roster. While he had some early success just by being a massive, immovable object, he has developed as a power striker to the point that he has put together a solid highlight reel of knockouts. Taleb seemed to be turning a corner, but an ill-advised attempt at a leglock against Claudio Silva resulted in a shocking upset loss, leading to what feels like a must-win bout if Taleb wants to retain any career momentum. He faces California’s Strickland, who was one of the most underrated fighters on the roster while he worked his way up the ranks. However, he has struggled over the last year and a half. Strickland is too patient for his own good and absolutely dedicated to countering his opponent. At first, that was enough to earn narrow decision wins, but as the book has come out on Strickland and he has faced better opposition, those wins have turned to losses; and a quick knockout loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was quite concerning. Still, Taleb is slow enough that I think Strickland can win rounds with his counterstriking, even if there is always the chance that he just coasts his way to a defeat. The pick is Strickland via decision. ODDS: Strickland (-115), Taleb (-105)

Lightweights

Thibault Gouti (12-4) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (9-2): I am not exactly sure what the UFC is doing here with Haqparast. Just two fights into his UFC career, the Afghan-German is already one of the promotion’s best prospects. Even on the regional scene, he improved greatly from bout to bout, and that trend continued inside the Octagon, with Haqparast dominating fellow top prospect Marc Diakiese in July. Haqparast is just 23, so I am fine with giving him a step back in competition. However, the point of a showcase fight is to, well, showcase a fighter, so it seems odd that this one is buried on the prelims. Gouti is a fine striker but offers little else at the UFC level, and frankly, he needed some luck to make it to six UFC appearances. When Gouti is overmatched, he tends to get completely run over, and Haqparast’s strong pressure game should do the trick here. The pick is Haqparast via first-round stoppage. ODDS: Haqparast (-1000), Gouti (+650)

Featherweights

Calvin Kattar (18-3) vs. Chris Fishgold (17-1-1): Boston’s Kattar had a solid record on the regional scene and has greatly outpaced expectations during his UFC run so far. Kattar handled Andre Fili and Shane Burgos with a strong, adaptable boxing game, and there was no shame in losing to Renato Carneiro in his most recent appearance. Kattar is firmly established as a Top-20 or so featherweight, so he will be an difficult test for the debuting Fishgold. England’s Fishgold comes to the UFC after a run as Cage Warriors Fighting Championship lightweight titleholder, and it will be interesting to see how his relentless wrestling-based game fares, both at 145 pounds and at this level. It is a hard fight to call, mostly since Kattar’s wrestling defense is not something that has been tested in his three UFC fights to date; there is a solid chance that Fishgold can get inside and bull Kattar around from there. However, Kattar has proven to be calm under pressure and able to adapt to his opponents, so I place my faith in him to keep Fishgold at bay and win a smart fight while keeping himself out of danger. The pick is Kattar via decision. ODDS: Kattar (-310), Fishgold (+255)

Women’s Bantamweights

Sarah Moras (5-3) vs. Talita Bernardo (5-3): British Columbia’s Moras has experienced an odd UFC tenure. Beyond the long bouts of inactivity, Moras has essentially spent her entire UFC career on her back, somehow doing well enough to win two out of her four fights with the promotion. It should not really work, but it does, and she will probably get the fight she wants against Bernardo. The Brazilian got the UFC call as a late replacement in 2017 and has proven to be a solid wrestler but little else. Moras has won fights from her back against better fighters than Bernardo, and she may not even have to do so here, as she still might be a stronger wrestler than the Brazilian. Her style is so low-percentage that it is hard to have significant faith in her winning any individual fight, but the pick is still Moras via decision. ODDS: Moras (-210), Bernardo (+175)

Last Fights » UFC Fight Pass Prelims