UFC Fight Night ‘Brown vs. Silva’ Preview

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Flyweights

Louis Smolka (7-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Chris Cariaso (16-5, 6-3 UFC)

The Matchup: At the sport’s highest level, Cariaso has only lost to the big guns: Renan Barao and Michael McDonald at bantamweight and Jussier da Silva and John Moraga at flyweight. Still, it is difficult to place Cariaso in the 125-pound division. Is he elite or merely a gatekeeper?

A bout with Smolka could offer some insight. The Hawaiian, who turns 23 in July, came in as an underdog and outworked the highly touted Alptekin Ozkilic over three rounds at UFC Fight Night “Rockhold vs. Philippou” in January. Smolka maintained a high pace throughout, attacking his opponent with high-volume punches, as well as kicks, standing elbows and knees from the Thai plum. While Ozkilic was able to land nine of his 14 takedown attempts, Smolka displayed good hips and consistently returned to his feet before his foe was able to do any significant damage on the mat. As a result, Ozkilic grew visibly fatigued as the bout progressed.

Do not expect Cariaso to expend as much energy looking for takedowns. Although his wrestling is competent and he has utilized well-timed takedowns in the past, Cariaso comes from a muay Thai background. He has a balanced attack on the feet and can land in combination consistently at various levels. However, Cariaso is not a big-time finisher, as evidenced by 11 decisions among 16 career triumphs. At 5-foot-9, Smolka will be the bigger man, and Cariaso will need to avoid getting battered in the clinch, where the Hawaiian often does his best work. It will be difficult for Cariaso to stay at a safe range in this matchup, although it is worth noting he is not averse to trading in the pocket.

If the fight hits the ground, Smolka is a skilled grappler capable of transitioning to submissions. Cariaso does own an underrated guard, but an opportunistic adversary can still catch him in a submission.

The Pick: Smolka will land with more power and volume, allowing him to win via decision.

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