Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Thatch’

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FLYWEIGHTS

Ray Borg (7-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Chris Kelades (8-1, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Blue-chip prospect Borg gets a solid challenge in the form of Nova Scotia’s Kelades, who won his short-notice UFC debut against Patrick Holohan in October as a massive underdog. Borg dropped his first UFC outing to the rising Dustin Ortiz in April but rebounded with a quick submission finish of Shane Howell two months later. Borg is a tremendous talent but remains quite raw, and Kelades is just the right kind of opponent to test the prospect without overwhelming him.

Borg is a true native of MMA, and that background shows up most clearly in his transitions from striking to wrestling and from wrestling to grappling. He is not an outstanding striker, and while he throws his switch kicks and punches with solid technique, he simply does not throw enough volume at range. He excels, however, at using those strikes and the angles they provide to find openings to shoot his excellent double-leg. Borg is very strong, and he finishes his takedowns with authoritative slams. Once the fight hits the mat, he immediately looks to create a scramble. As his opponent attempts to get back to his feet, Borg either transitions to the back as his adversary hips out and creates space or grabs the front headlock -- a position from which he excels at spinning around and establishing back control in order to find his signature rear-naked choke. He is almost impossible to hold down, and his ability to transition quickly means his opponent is never safe on the ground. Still, his skill sets are not very deep, and he relies heavily on his athleticism and scrambling.

Kelades lacks Borg’s upside, but he is a solid and well-rounded fighter. He strikes with some skill, preferring a hard right hand, decent jab and the occasional kick, but does his best work on the inside. Kelades is a punishing infighter and excels at transitioning between dirty boxing and takedown attempts in the clinch. He has a nice single-leg, although he occasionally struggles to defend takedowns. On the mat, he maintains a strong base, passes well and mixes up submission attempts and ground strikes.

BETTING ODDS: Borg (-550), Kelades (+425)

THE PICK: Borg is and should be the favorite, but there are still enough questions about the American’s game that there might be some value on Kelades. The most likely scenario, however, involves Borg exploiting Kelades’ suspect takedown defense, jumping to the back and tapping the Canadian quickly. Borg by submission in the first round is the pick.

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