Preview: UFC 220 ‘Miocic vs. Ngannou’

Featherweight

Kyle Bochniak (7-2) vs. Brandon Davis (8-2)

ODDS: Davis (-120), Bochniak (+100)

ANALYSIS: One of the most anonymous three-fight UFC vets you will ever find, Bochniak is still trying to find a name and a roster space after two years with the company. Yes, he is fighting in his backyard, but even with Davis’ lack of pedigree, he is facing a better caliber of fighter than he is accustomed to. Davis, an Alan Belcher product, is far from refined, yet he has enough takedown defense to hurt the eager Belcher in clinch positions. This bout between fledgling fighters will be determined by who wins in the clinch and close-space fighting. Davis has more experience in the area and is the better natural wrestler, so he is the better choice to win a close and competitive decision.

Light Heavyweight

Abdul Razak Alhassan (8-1) vs. Sabah Homasi (11-7)

ODDS: Alhassan (-220), Homasi (+180)

ANALYSIS: In this era of wham-bam UFC matchmaking and cancelations, I would not blame you for failing to realize this bout already happened at UFC 218 on Dec. 2. I would also forgive you for forgetting it was supposed to be rematched at UFC 219 on Dec. 20, this after Homasi was individually dissatisfied with the officiating in their previous bout just three weeks earlier. Was the UFC 218 stoppage from Herb Dean a little fast? Yes. However, in their first encounter, Homasi ate every counterpunch Alhassan sent his way. He stumbled back into the fence and wound up having dominant positions taken by a man who is not any sort of dominant, positional grappler. Alhassan, for all his inexperience, is a freakish athlete and has already overcome his more experienced counterpart once. Look for him to do the exact same thing. If he does not hurt Homasi with strikes and finish, he will stun his opponent, take a dominant position and either choke him out or pound him out for a victory in the first eight minutes.

Flyweight

Dustin Ortiz (17-7) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (18-2)

ODDS: Pantoja (-140), Ortiz (+120)

ANALYSIS: Like so many Ortiz bouts, this one rests on how the Tennessee native plans to fight and, more operatively, how quickly he can scramble out of dominant positions. Plain and simple, Ortiz is a perennial top-15 flyweight with legitimately well-rounded skills. However, his game is predicated upon a level of scrambling that does not always jive at 125 pounds, and Pantoja would seem to be an opponent who can give him problems, given that taking and holding back control is one of his greatest skills. This fight seems destined to be a back-and-forth, tit-for-tat striking match, where Pantoja kicks more frequently, Ortiz lands more punches and the Brazilian takes back control, perhaps eating some heat for his efforts. Ortiz is consistently hot-and-cold as a contender, but it seems more contingent on his opponents. In this case, expect a scramble-fest that ultimately comes down to the individual judges’ proclivities. Given his penchant for back control, the call is Pantoja in a razor-thin split decision.

Featherweight

Julio Arce (13-2) vs. Dan Ige (8-1)

ODDS: Arce (-150), Ige (+130)

ANALYSIS: As we have come to realize, UFC bantamweight Brian Kelleher can fight a little bit, and he is responsible for Arce’s only two pro losses in hotly contested fights. Ige, like so many fighters to come off of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, lacks in the way of defense. Ige is the more natural aggressor standing, so if he is able to walk down Arce and land strikes, he will be in a good position. With that said, the natural southpaw, Arce, is the far more skilled striker, especially in the boxing department, whether wading back or flowing in. Arce is more methodical than his counterpart, so it is likely that if he expresses the striking advantage, he will lean on it for 15 minutes to take the decision. However, the aggressive Ige may lean into something fight-turning, which could ignite Arce into a situation to finish. Nonetheless, look for the Team Tiger Schulmann product to plod out a decision win.

Last Fights » Undercard Prelims