Preview: UFC on Fox 29 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje’
The Prelims
Middleweights
Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Jr. (9-2)Advertisement
Welterweights
Muslim Salikhov (13-2) vs. Ricky Rainey (13-4)
ODDS: Salikhov (-185), Rainey (+160).
ANALYSIS: A Bellator MMA veteran, Rainey steps in
for Abdul
Razak Alhassan on two weeks’ notice. His only losses in that
promotion were a razor-thin decision to powerhouse Chidi
Njokuani and a TKO at the hands of Michael
Page. “The Sniper” is an impossibly long, ambidextrous striker.
He will have a mind-blowing 10-inch reach advantage on Salikhov in
his Octagon debut. Rainey typically likes to pressure, backing foes
to the fence behind a bevy of kicks to all levels with either leg.
Once trapped there, his opponents will come under fire from a
barrage of long punches, kicks and knees. If the North Carolinian
ties up, he is dangerous with knees and elbows, as well. His
takedown defense and grappling are nothing at which to sneeze.
Salikhov enters his sophomore UFC showdown on the heels of a
disappointing debut in November, when “The King of Kung Fu” was
taken down and submitted by Alex Garcia.
Salikhov is an International Master of Sport in sanda -- a title
only gained through winning competitions at that level. The
Dagestani is known for his spinning attacks and the highlight-reel
knockouts they have produced, but he also makes use of a snappy
lead inside leg kick and power hooks as opponents rush in to close
the distance. His problem here: Rainey does not need to close the
distance and is much more active. While Salikhov is looking to line
up a knockout, Rainey can do work from long range and the clinch,
if it goes there. His lack of a full camp is concerning and makes
him a deserved underdog, but this is a winnable fight for Rainey.
He battles to a decision.
Flyweights
Wilson Reis (22-8) vs. John Moraga (18-6)ODDS: Reis (-140), Moraga (+120). ANALYSIS: Moraga is the quintessential opportunistic finisher, embodying all the good and ill of that style. He has stopped his opponent in five of his seven UFC wins, but his low-output, kill-shot-hunting style does not lend itself to winning rounds. The MMA Lab export makes the style work for him against all but the best flyweights, and his serious pop can sometimes put him over the top against the upper echelon at 125 pounds. Witness him flattening hyped prospect Magomed Bibulatov in his last fight as a heavy underdog. Moraga is not a great wrestler, but his guillotine is a serious deterrent. Here he takes on another former title challenger in Reis, who has gotten blown out in his last two outings by Demetrious Johnson and Henry Cejudo. Granted, the pair represent the worst stylistic nightmares in the division as better wrestlers and more explosive athletes, two traits upon which Reis relies. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is a great scrambler and slick back-taker, with 10 of his 22 wins coming by submission. On the feet, the southpaw throws hammering body kicks and searing overhands, but he lands at an even lower rate than Moraga. This is not due to his output but his weakness in the accuracy department. His constant feints and pawing jabs are meant to find range and disrupt rhythm rather than actually score. Reis’ biggest issue is probably his chin. It has never been particularly sturdy. Either Moraga cracks it again or Reis outwrestles him to a decision. I will go with the latter because I hate relying on a one-hitter quitter. Reis by decision is the pick.
Middleweights
Krzysztof Jotko (19-3) vs. Brad Tavares (16-4)ODDS: Tavares (-135), Jotko (+115). ANALYSIS: This is a great fight between two well-rounded middleweights. Tavares has spent almost his entire career in the UFC, going 11-4 with the promotion. His only losses since 2011 are to Tim Boetsch, Yoel Romero and Robert Whittaker -- not a bad list of names. The Xtreme Couture rep is a moderate-output kickboxer with takedowns to back it up. The Hawaiian’s most impressive performance, to my mind, came when he out-kickboxed Lorenz Larkin in 2014. He did so behind combinations of strikes, landing several shots for every whipping kick he absorbed. Since then, Tavares pot-shots with one or two strikes at a time, rarely firing multi-punch salvos. Still, the Ray Sefo protege can maintain solid output and beat up the lead leg of his opponent. He is also difficult to take down. Jotko is similarly hard to budge, but the Pole is enigmatic. He will have a tough, grinding fight with Bradley Scott, then flatten Tamden McCrory with one punch and soundly outgrapple jiu-jitsu world champion Thales Leites. Jotko is looking to bounce back from being on the wrong end of a “Comeback of the Year” performance by Uriah Hall. Jotko smartly but uncharacteristically pressured the flashy striker, hurt him in the pocket and then ran a grappling and ground-and-pound clinic for the remainder of the first round. He also gassed himself out, and Hall knocked him out in Round 2. Tavares’ cardio is top-notch, and it ensures he can push a pace for three rounds. On the strength of that ability, he takes a decision.
Lightweights
Gilbert Burns (12-2) vs. Dan Moret (13-3)ODDS: Burns (-550), Moret (+425). ANALYSIS: A rough stylistic matchup awaits Moret in his debut. Eight of his 13 wins are by submission, but he is facing a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion. Burns is coming off a second-round knockout of Jason Saggo in which he clattered the Canadian with an overhand right. Despite this, his striking is still underdeveloped but coming along slowly. He throws mostly single power strikes like the aforementioned overhand to go along with uppercuts and body kicks. “Durinho” is a powerful athlete capable of high-amplitude slam takedowns if he can get in on the hips, but while he lands two takedowns per fight on average, he only succeeds on 33 percent of his shots. In his losses, he has been picked apart by counterstrikes, and Michel Prazeres caught kicks and dumped him repeatedly, upsetting any rhythm he might have had striking. With that said, even Prazeres thought twice about going to the ground with the Hard Knocks 365 fighter. It will be interesting to see if Moret changes his usual strategy. Typically, he chain-guns punches to get to the clinch, where he works to trip the fight to the floor. Once there, he aggressively hunts submissions, and his record boasts a variety of chokes from both guard and dominant positions. The southpaw will likely try to keep it standing, but he will be in line for big body kicks from the Brazilian. With no recourse on the mat, Moret drops a decision in his debut.
Women’s Flyweights
Shana Dobson (3-1) vs. Lauren Mueller (4-0)ODDS: Dobson (-115), Mueller (-105). ANALYSIS: These two women are long on power but short on experience, with only eight pro bouts between them. Dobson was the No. 16 seed on “The Ultimate Fighter 26,” and she got taken down and mauled by Roxanne Modafferi. However, the kickboxer made the most of her official debut, punching out fellow castmate Ariel Beck inside two rounds. Against another striker, Dobson got to show off her ambidextrous kicks and right hand, which she tripled up on to finish Beck. Mueller is coming off a decision win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. There, she savagely wall-and-mauled her opponent but tired down the stretch. That can be attributed at least somewhat to her taking the fight on short notice. There is not a lot to go on here, so I will pick the fighter with the most-developed skill set. That would be Dobson’s striking. She will have to peel herself off the fence a few times, but she puts enough hands and feet on Mueller to take a decision.
Welterweights
Dhiego Lima (12-6) vs. Yushin Okami (34-11)ODDS: Lima (-110), Okami (-110). ANALYSIS: Okami is 36, well past his physical peak and looks sucked out as a welterweight. At least he is not fighting a huge 205er after three years at 170 pounds. The Japanese veteran is not the brutish physical force he was as a middleweight, but he remains a competent, reliable grinder. His diminished physicality makes his clinch-heavy wall-and-maul style less imposing, but it takes upper-echelon wrestlers to give him pause. The Team Quest transplant is basic but effective on the feet, pot-shotting with two-punch combinations and hard body kicks from southpaw. He takes on Lima, who is undefeated in “The Ultimate Fighter” gym through two seasons but owns a 1-4 mark in official UFC bouts. The Atlanta-based Brazilian is well-rounded and can do a bit of everything. He packs a nice left hook and hard leg kicks, but he has a suspect chin and has real trouble under pressure. Okami will plug away at boxing range and against the cage to take a decision for his first UFC win since he beat Hector Lombard five years ago.
Heavyweights
Arjan Bhullar (7-0) vs. Adam Wieczorek (9-1)ODDS: Bhullar (-370), Wieczorek (+310). ANALYSIS: This fight is going to be ugly. Both men were fortunate to eke out wins over low-level opposition in their respective debuts, and the winner of this fight will have repeated the feat. Bhullar is the first fighter of Indian descent to fight in the UFC, and he has an impressive international wrestling pedigree, winning gold at the Commonwealth Games in 2010 while representing Canada. A pro for less than four years, his striking is still very raw. Mostly, he pumps the jab, wanting to stay away before following it up with a shot or clinch entry. As you would imagine, he is smothering on the fence and on the mat. Wieczorek is going to have four inches of height and six of reach on Bhullar, and he will need to use every bit of it to keep the wrestler off of him. However, the Pole likes to grapple himself, using his long frame to trip opponents to the mat, where he has four armbar submission wins. Standing, Wieczorek prefers knees or single kicks to all levels with his lead left leg, making his head kick sneaky. Still, he gets stuck against the cage far too easily, which spells doom against Bhullar. The Canadian grinds out another lackluster decision.
Bantamweights
Matthew Lopez (10-2) vs. Alejandro Perez (19-6-1)ODDS: Lopez (-140), Perez (+120). ANALYSIS: Lopez entered the big show with a ton of hype -- he was a 2-to-1 favorite in his debut against the infinitely more experienced Rani Yahya -- but that has cooled after a 2-2 start. He was melted in his last fight with Raphael Assuncao but acquitted himself well against one of the top bantamweights in the world. The Trevor Wittman disciple even penetrated Assuncao’s 80 percent takedown defense. Wrestling and aggressive grappling are Lopez’s bread and butter, as he was a four-time Arizona state wrestling champion in high school. Lopez still carries a prospect label despite being 31 years old, but he has been fighting professionally for less than five years. Continued improvements are to be expected, even as his physical prime starts to wind down. He is a willing striker with a thudding southpaw body kick and wide-open eyes, even when throwing down in the pocket. Here he takes on Perez, who has willed himself to a 5-1-1 Octagon record. The Mexican is wily, fast and unpredictable. While he cannot match the martial arts pedigrees of many of his opponents, he gets by on being active and tough. He wings overhands with evil intent but fires from the hip, limiting their effectiveness. His herky-jerky lateral movement makes him hard to pin down, and he can close the distance suddenly with a combination. This is a much more winnable fight for Lopez, who could not move the immovable Assuncao and willingly partook in a scramble-fest with Yahya and lost. His wrestling is the difference and leads to a second-half submission.
Bantamweights
Luke Sanders (11-2) vs. Patrick Williams (8-5)ODDS: Sanders (-430), Williams (+345). ANALYSIS: Sanders has disappointed in two appearances since a dominant debut win over Maximo Blanco two years ago. “Cool Hand Luke” is a rugged southpaw slugger with great conditioning who pushes an even better pace. The former amateur boxer’s constant forward pressure means he eats a fair amount of counters, one of which resulted in his last loss to Andre Soukhamthath. However, Sanders is generally tough and overwhelming. The former Tennessee state wrestling champion does not shoot a ton, but he has solid takedown defense and punishes attempts with knees and elbows. If he does not get put away early by another massive shot, he should put Williams away without a problem. “The Animal” has yet to see the seven-minute mark in three UFC outings, and he gassed horribly a year ago before getting knocked out by Tom Duquesnoy. He was off for nearly two years before that fight. His move to American Top Team has made Williams slightly less reckless than he was before, but he still comes out like a house on fire, and his inactivity is not helping his cardio. Expect Sanders’ pace to drain Williams’ reserves early again, as he finishes him inside two rounds.
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