Preview: UFC Fight Night 138 ‘Oezdemir vs. Smith’

Light Heavyweights

Gian Villante (16-10) vs. Ed Herman (23-13)

ODDS: Villante (-280), Herman (+240)

There was a time when it was Villante, not college buddy Chris Weidman, who was the top prospect out of Long Island, New York, and it is easy to see why. Villante was enough of an athlete to draw NFL interest, and he looks great in moments, showing a few different tricks and combinations. However, the mental part of MMA has always eluded Villante. He tends to repeat the same rhythms when throwing out his offense and has shown a complete refusal to adjust to his opponent as the fight goes on. There is still enough there that he can beat a solid chunk of the UFC’s light heavyweight roster, whether it is due to speed, durability or some of his opponents being subpar. Rest assured, every Villante fight is going to tread the fine line between being dumb fun or just being plain dumb.

Meanwhile, at age 38, Herman is still answering the call. I suppose it makes sense, as it is hard to lose your athleticism when you never had much athleticism to begin with. A UFC roster member since Season 3 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Herman always relied on his grappling craft but has supplemented that with a striking game that can be surprisingly quick at times, even if he remains glacially slow on the feet. As Herman has aged, he has had little to offer better athletes who just want to bum rush him -- Derek Brunson and Nikita Krylov both ate his lunch -- but he has still done surprisingly well against opponents who want to engage him in a slow-paced grind. Even that might be hitting the point of diminishing returns. While his last bout against C.B. Dollaway was a surprisingly fun grappling match, the fact that it was also a clear loss for Herman remains a concern.

I hate this fight, while also admitting it is matched pretty well. The book on Villante has been written and subsequently faxed to the entire UFC roster, but it still may work here depending on how much Herman’s game has deteriorated. Herman should be able to read Villante’s offense in short order, but it remains an open question if he can still beat Villante to the punch and counter what he throws. At this point, it might just be a case where the mind is willing but the body can no longer execute the game plan. The Dollaway loss raises too many concerns for me. While I would like for Herman to still have enough hand speed to starch Villante on the counter, if only to get this fight over quickly and get this card moving, I just see this as Villante continually getting the better of a slow-paced striking match. The pick is Villante via decision.

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