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Welterweights

Kelvin Gastelum (12-2) vs. Donald Cerrone (31-7)

THE MATCHUP: In some ways, Gastelum is the perfect fighter to beat Cerrone and an improvement on the challenging welterweights “Cowboy” has already beaten. Five of Cerrone’s seven losses came against southpaws and one to a frequent stance-switcher; Gastelum is a lefty. Boxing and wrestling have traditionally been the skill sets to beat Cerrone; Gastelum can do both quite well. Cerrone is vulnerable to body shots; Gastelum has a mean liver kick. Five of Cerrone’s losses either occurred in the first round or were caused in part by an opponent’s fast start; Gastelum starts fast and has six first- or second-round finishes.

Unfortunately for Gastelum, Cerrone’s old problems do not seem to be nearly as pronounced as they once were. Most tellingly, he dominated Rick Story in his last fight, overcoming a pressuring, body-punching southpaw wrestler with absolute ease. Much of the credit has to go to Brandon Gibson, who has taken on an ever greater role as head striking coach at Jackson-Wink MMA in the last few years; his emphasis on footwork and a potent blend of traditional boxing and traditionally Jacksonian creativity has yielded fantastic results. Under Gibson, Cerrone has become a dynamite combination puncher with much better head movement and footwork, all skills he was lacking just a few years ago. Add in his increased focus on offensive wrestling, a handy complement to the Brazilian jiu-jitsu that has always been an ace up his sleeve, and you have a uniquely dangerous fighter. Call him “Cowboy 2.0.”

Still, it would be a risky proposition to box with Gastelum in the pocket. The stocky southpaw struggled to show off the benefits of his own training switch against Neil Magny, but against Johny Hendricks, he looked like a poster boy for what Kings MMA has always done well. Gastelum landed 124 significant strikes on Hendricks’ head, body and legs. That is an average of 8.27 significant strikes per minute, a dramatic improvement over his usual 3.9. He also absorbed a few more strikes per minute, but the fight was one-sided thanks to Gastelum’s aggressive, confident approach: Rafael Cordeiro 101.

A few takedowns in this fight would not be surprising. Cerrone has taken down his opponent in every one of his last three fights. Even when the wrestling does not lead to a finish on the ground, it enhances his striking significantly. Gastelum’s takedown defense is not iron-clad, either, though he scrambles exceptionally well. Still, this fight should play out largely on the feet, with both men trying to prove themselves in the striking department.

THE ODDS: Cerrone (-156), Gastelum (+131)

THE PICK: A year ago, I would have confidently picked Gastelum here. He is probably stronger and definitely more solidly built than Cerrone. A year ago, I would have also said that he hit harder. Now, the line is blurred. Cerrone has been on a tear of late. His foray into the welterweight division has allowed him to bulk up a bit, adding considerable power to his strikes and giving him the confidence to outwrestle his opponents. He also seems faster in comparison to his new crop of enemies. At just 25, Gastelum is still coming into his own, and we can expect him to continue improving. As far as his future is concerned, that is a good thing. For now, however, it will take a consistent, fully developed opponent to stop Cerrone’s roll. “Cowboy” by unanimous decision is the pick.

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