UFC on FX 8 Preview

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Middleweights

Rafael Natal (15-4-1, 3-2-1) vs. Joao Zeferino (13-4, 0-0 UFC)

The Matchup: A bit of main card shuffling results in Zeferino making his Octagon debut on the FX portion of the broadcast against a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Natal.

Recently, “Sapo” has given the impression of someone who is quite pleased with himself, whether it be through informing the world that he has a “great body and a beautiful girlfriend,” which he did following a UFC on Fox 6 triumph over Sean Spencer, or by taunting and dropping his hands mid-fight, which he did against Andrew Craig at UFC on Fuel TV 4. The latter display ultimately cost the Brazilian, as Craig knocked him out with a head kick in their July encounter.

Natal has decent power in his hands, but his standup can be a mixed bag. He is most effective when he sticks his jab and follows with a steady diet of leg kicks. However, Natal also has the tendency to swing wildly at times, which lowers his accuracy and leaves him susceptible to counters. As a grappler, Natal functions best when he can take down his opponent and work from top position. He is heavy from above and will consistently look to pass guard. His guard game is not as reliable, but the Gracie Fusion product often negates this problem with his solid takedown defense.

Zeferino enters his first UFC appearance on the strength of a seven-fight winning streak. The Nitrix Fight Team representative has earned nine of his 13 career victories via submission. “The Brazilian Samurai” is versatile, as well, as he has elicited tapouts using a variety of holds, including armbars, arm-triangle chokes and guillotines. He owns a notable 25-second submission of two-time UFC competitor Sean Salmon via heel hook in 2011, though it is worth mentioning that it was loss nine in an ongoing 10-fight skid for Salmon.

Zeferino moves forward aggressively with his striking, using it primarily as a means to close distance. He will often look to take down his foes in tie-ups, which could be dangerous against someone with solid close-quarters knees such as Natal. On the mat, Zeferino works to advance position while landing a steady stream of punches. Many of his victories -- 10 of them, in fact -- have come inside of a round, but he will encounter more resistance here.

The Pick: Natal lands more standing, drags Zeferino into deep waters and wins via late submission or decision.

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