Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lewis vs. Browne’

Middleweights

Elias Theodorou (11-1) vs. Cezar Ferreira (10-5)

THE MATCHUP: Twitter’s favorite Disney prince takes on the comeback kid in this intriguing middleweight showcase. Theodorou is an excellent athlete with a style that many other excellent athletes have attempted and struggled to use. For whatever reason, many naturally athletic young fighters rely heavily on kicks, perhaps because they find them easier to learn than most and because they are effective at a relatively safe range. Unfortunately, the usual consequence of this tactic is that boxing skills are not called on to develop until it is too late. Such has been the case with fighters like Aljamain Sterling and Paige VanZant, and such is the case with Theodorou.

Boxing is arguably the most important skill against Ferreira, whose most persistent problem has been a rather suspect chin. Ferreira has not failed to adapt to his weaknesses, however. He sharpened up his own boxing in the wake of his knockout losses to Sam Alvey and Jorge Masvidal and now employs an out-fighting style that perfectly suits his real strengths: wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Ferreira floats around on the outside, pot-shotting and countering when need be, and focuses on staying all the way out or all the way in. When he manages to create the latter range, takedowns soon follow.

Ferreira’s wrestling is quite good. He shoots 3.8 times per 15 minutes and finishes an impressive 69 percent of the time, equating to 2.62 takedowns on average per fight. This is not good news for Theodorou, whose takedown defense is rated by FightMetric at an uninspiring 41 percent. “Mutante” has excellent positioning on the ground and frequently succeeds in passing to a dominant position immediately after securing the takedown. Theodorou will likely manage to escape a few times due to his sheer physical strength, but Ferreira will look to use those scrambles as submission opportunities.

Should Ferreira choose to strike with Theodorou, the Canadian fighter’s chances will improve greatly. Though he lacks the boxing to press Ferreira in the pocket, he might be able to stall out the Brazilian at range. This was a strategy Theodorou used against an even more dedicated counterpuncher in Alvey; and while it was far from exciting, it worked like a charm. Should Ferreira and Theodorou get into any exchanges, the latter will undoubtedly have the advantage in durability, though he is quite possibly not powerful enough himself to hurt Ferreira the way other fighters have.

THE ODDS: Ferreira (-125), Theodorou (+105)

THE PICK: Ferreira simply has too many stylistic advantages; and though Theodorou has the edge in durability, Ferreira is probably his equal as an athlete, with solid power and speed and excellent timing. The Brazilian’s recent developments may be designed to enable his grappling game, but he also managed to comfortably outstrike a talented boxer in Jack Hermansson last time out. Theodorou is a talent to watch, but this is simply a bad matchup for him. Unless the Canadian shows some unforeseen new wrinkles, Ferreira should have little difficulty in scoring the bigger shots and hitting his takedowns. Ferreira by unanimous decision is the pick.

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