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Lightweights

Ross Pearson (18-9) vs Francisco Trinaldo (18-4)

THE MATCHUP: This is an oddly meaningful lightweight pairing. Trinaldo is 37 years old but seems to be entering the best form of his nine-year career. Currently riding a four-fight winning streak, Trinaldo knocked out Tristar Gym prospect Chad Laprise in his last bout, showing off the improvements in his striking; and he took a decision from Norman Parke the fight before in a matchup that showcased his ever-expanding skill set. It is easy to think of Trinaldo as an archetypal “Brazilian grinder,” and a quick look at the loss to Gleison Tibau on his record would suggest that he is not even the best at employing that limited style. In reality, though, Trinaldo is far from the typical lay-and-pray grappler.

For one, Trinaldo is a willing and extremely explosive striker. From his southpaw stance, he flicks a pawing jab in his opponent’s face before lunging in with dynamite left hands to the head and body. Despite having only six knockouts on his record, “Massarunduba” carries more than enough power in that left hand to demand the respect of his opponents. He is such a gung-ho kickboxer, in fact, that he often fails to blend the two aspects of his game together, giving up takedowns while he looks for punches, kicks and short knees. When he does grapple, however, Trinaldo is as powerful as he looks and savvy, as well. When he does get taken down, he remains calm and patiently works his way back to his feet, saving his explosive energy for knockout punches.

Pearson’s career has taken a similarly strange trajectory, though he has not found the same consistency as Trinaldo. Despite going unbeaten through five previous appearances -- yes, I am counting the Diego Sanchez bout as a win -- Pearson has split wins and losses in his last four bouts. For all of those bouts, it is fairly easy to say that the better fighter won. The wins -- over a shopworn Sam Stout and an inexperienced Paul Felder -- confirm that Pearson is a solid top-15 lightweight; the losses -- to Evan Dunham and Al Iaquinta -- firmly suggest that he will never be part of the top five.

There is a lot to like about Pearson from a technical standpoint. For some time now, he has had some of the best head movement in the sport, using small, economical slips to set up clean counters, most notably of the left hook variety. He is also a solid kicker, and he can fight well going forward or backward, though he seems to box a bit better than he pressures. Pearson is also a stout defensive wrestler, though when drawn forward, he can give up his hips. Once grounded, however, Pearson tends to fight a little too frantically, trying to explode his way to freedom rather than working methodically back to his feet.

THE ODDS: Pearson (-150), Trinaldo (+130)

THE PICK: Normally it would be relatively easy to pick Pearson over a striker like Trinaldo. The Brazilian is by no means a clueless kickboxer, but he is a fairly low-volume one, and a scan of Pearson’s resume shows he only really loses to high-volume fighters, like Dunham, Iaquinta and Edson Barboza. As against Felder, Pearson will likely use his crisp jab to keep Trinaldo at arm’s length, occasionally gambling on a diverse array of other strikes to keep the other man guessing. Add in Trinaldo’s explosive entries, however, and the matchup changes considerably. I expect Trinaldo to avoid chasing after Pearson as Felder did in favor of striking from long range, forcing the Brit to run into his left hands and shot takedowns. The pick is “Massarunduba” by unanimous decision.

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