Preview: UFC 266 Prelims

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Women’s Flyweights

#12 WFLW | Taila Santos (17-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. #9 WFLW | Roxanne Modafferi (25-18, 4-6 UFC)

ODDS: Santos (-400), Modafferi (+325)

Amazingly, we are approaching the 19th year of Modafferi as a professional mixed martial artist. A pioneer of women’s MMA, “The Happy Warrior” seemed to have plateaued as far back as 2012. The distaff side of the sport had appeared to evolve past her grappling-heavy style, and Modafferi—never a particularly strong athlete—struggled to keep up. After a six-fight losing streak that spanned from 2010 to 2013, Modafferi cut down to flyweight and began a shocking career turnaround. Most of that centered around Modafferi’s sudden discovery of a striking game; it is still awkward, but it serves as enough of a changeup that Modafferi can keep opponents off-balance and work towards the best parts of her game. Modafferi’s constant athletic deficit has given her a clear ceiling in the division, but she has still proven quite capable of taking apart younger and more physically talented prospects. In recent years, Antonina Shevchenko and Maycee Barber have each fallen short in the constant grind that Modafferi can put on her opponents.

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Up next in that mold: Brazil’s Santos, who has made a name for herself as one of the more promising prospects in the division. Santos rode a weak slate of competition to her UFC debut but used that time well in putting together some solid fundamentals as a kickboxer. That debut, a narrow decision loss to Mara Romero Borella, showed some concern about how Santos fares against opponents who can match her physically. Borella did not offer much else beyond physicality, but that was enough to turn Santos’ typically slow-paced style into a slog that went against her on the scorecards. Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson were game opponents, but they each showed how Santos can leverage her strength and athletic ability when given those advantages with which to work—something that also figures to be the case against Modafferi. This is a closer fight than consensus, as Santos is exactly the type of physically strong but technically shallow grappler Modafferi has upset in the past. Even so, the favorite has to be Santos given those physical advantages; and after all, surprise is half the fun when it comes to Modafferi’s victories. The pick is Santos via decision.

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