Preview: UFC Fight Night 228 ‘Fiziev vs. Gamrot’

Women’s Strawweights

#8 WSW | Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2, 6-3-2 UFC) vs. #12 WSW | Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-11, 6-7 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-310), Waterson-Gomez (+250)

This seems like an odd fight to revisit—Rodriguez won a 2021 main event via clear decision—but there is some intrigue two and a half years later, particularly on the victor’s side. After dropping a 2020 bout to Carla Esparza, Brazil’s Rodriguez rebounded with a four-fight winning streak that figured to get her into a wide-open championship mix. Up until that point, Rodriguez was an interesting fighter whose game was more than the sum of its parts. A striker by trade, Rodriguez has never read as a spectacular athlete, but her combination of consistent pressure and enough takedown defense to get by was typically enough to find a win. However, the last year has been a struggle for Rodriguez thanks to a few of her Brazilian countrywomen. First came a November headliner against Amanda Lemos, a high-risk and low-reward fight given that Rodriguez was already seemingly in the catbird seat for a title shot. Even from the beginning, it was apparent that Lemos’ knockout power was putting some unusual tentativeness into Rodriguez’s approach. It led to Lemos finding a third-round knockout and indeed earning a subsequent title fight. Then things fell further apart in a May fight against Virna Jandiroba, who went the opposite route and turned things into a grimy wrestling match, neutralizing Rodriguez for three rounds to earn the decision. Rodriguez could just wind up snapping back to form and picking up where she left off early in 2022, but there is also the worry that two disheartening losses might be enough to sow some seeds of doubt into her fighting style—something she might not be able to afford. To that end, it is a solid litmus test to see if she can recapture her old form against a recent opponent like Waterson-Gomez.

As for Waterson-Gomez, she has suffered two losses in the time since the last fight. She was finished by Lemos and dropped a controversial split decision to Luana Pinheiro, leaving the story for “The Karate Hottie” about the same as ever. For someone whose career was centered so much around her looks early on, Waterson-Gomez has put together an impressive career, marrying those karate stylings with a surprisingly dogged wrestling and grappling game whenever she chooses to pursue that phase. Still, those losses to Lemos and Pinheiro—part of a stretch that has seen Waterson-Gomez lose five out of six fights despite some solid performances—have driven home a larger point: As a natural atomweight, Waterson-Gomez just does not have the physicality to get beyond a certain level. There are some clear points, as always, where Waterson-Gomez can frustrate her opponent. Her speed allows her to outmaneuver a lot of opponents from range, and Rodriguez’s takedown defense could once again be exposed as a liability. With that said, a lot of this fight was an uphill battle the first time around, and the bet is that Rodriguez fighting an opponent she has handily beaten before helps keep any mental issues at bay. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.

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Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Mitchell vs. Ige
Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez
Battle vs. Fletcher
Jourdain vs. Ramos
The Prelims